Watches Warnings Advisories
Hydrologic Outlook
COC067
Current watches, warnings, and advisories for La Plata County (COC067) CO
Hydrologic Outlook issued July 15 at 2:54PM MDT by NWS Grand Junction CO
ESFGJTAn anomalous plume of moisture continues to rotate into Utah andwestern Colorado this afternoon,
as an elongated area of highpressure shifts into the southwestern CONUS. For today, steeringwinds
overhead are northerly, providing a unique storm motion forthe GJT forecast area. In addition,
our southern zones and most ofeastern Utah contain higher amounts of moisture, so as
stormsgenerally build and shift south, theyre moving into juicierenvironments.Even though this source of moisture
is a great relief to the droughtstricken West, excessive rainfall returns the concerns of
flashflooding and debris flows over recent (or even on going) burn scars.18Zs sounding also
shows weak flow throughout the atmosphericcolumn, which will result in slow moving thunderstorms thisafternoon.
The combination of increased moisture and slow stormmotion further elevates the concern for excessive
rainfall inlocalized areas. The San Juans are a bullseye in precipitationforecasts over the next
several days, maintaining flood threatsredeveloping each afternoon. Due to the prolonged period ofanomalously high
moisture, over areas with sensitive burn scars, wewant to emphasize the potential for flash
flooding and debris flowsin this regime. Were expecting an uptick in moisture content acrossthe
entire region on Thursday, which favors a higher likelihood ofwetting rain with bursts of
heavy rain in localized storms.For 2026 fires, we have yet to test their susceptibility
to handlerainfall. Therefore, we want to increase our messaging of thepotential hazards at play
downstream nearby fires. Keep an eye onour forecasts through the end of the week
and stay tuned for updatedhydro alerts if visiting or if you reside below vulnerable
terrainto flash flooding and/or debris flows. Storms across the westdevelop quickly, leaving little room
for lead time in flashyterrain.
Hydrologic Outlook
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